AFGHANISTAN: Conflict Displacement and Returnee Influx Contingency Plan 2026 (May 2026)

Country: Afghanistan Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Please refer to the attached file. Background and Rationale Afghanistan remains highly vulnerable to regional geopolitical shocks due to its reliance on cross‑border trade corridors, its significant trade deficit, and the presence of large Afghan populations in neighbouring countries. The prolonged closure of key border points with Pakistan and growing uncertainty around commodity movements through Iran are already driving up logistics costs, extending lead times, and reducing the availability and affordability of essential goods in local markets. At the same time, sustained cross-border military exchanges between the de facto authorities (DfA) and Pakistani forces since 26 February—including airstrikes, artillery fire, and ground clashes along several segments of the Durand Line—have triggered internal displacement in several border districts. The combined impact of conflict-related displacement, potential large-scale returns of Afghans from Iran and/or Pakistan due to instability or pushbacks, and ongoing logistical constraints affecting supply pipelines is placing additional stress on Afghanistan’s economy and local markets. Altogether, these factors may sharply increase humanitarian needs at a time when partners’ operational capacity is already under mounting pressure. This contingency plan provides a single, consolidated planning framework for two potentially compounding escalation scenarios: a mass returnee influx from Iran as the conflict involving the United States and Israel re-intensifies and renewed or heightened Afghanistan–Pakistan hostilities that could trigger additional internal displacement or a potential returnee influx from Pakistan should pushbacks resume. These risks may materialise si...

Original source: Relief Web