Ethiopia: Highly variable seasonal conditions and developing El Niño signals concerns across East Africa

Countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages The March–May 2026 rainfall season has remained cumulatively average to above-average across much of Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Sudan leading to favourable agricultural and rangeland conditions in these areas. March to early May rainfall totals in much of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi are near average with some deficit areas. Rainfall is substantially below average in southern-central Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia where seasonal totals are as low as 45 percent of average. A dry period occurred during early-to-mid April, characterized by deficits across much of the region, including most of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and a delayed Gu rainfall season onset in Somalia. This raised concerns about negative impacts to crop production. Enhanced rainfall in late April improved soil moisture, and in many areas, this supported recovery of crops, pasture and surface water conditions. Due also to an early onset and above-average early-season rainfall, crop conditions across most bimodal cropping areas of Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan and Belg cropping regions of Ethiopia remain generally favourable. Pasture and water resources remain favourable across most pastoral areas of Kenya. Concerns about poor rainfall distribution and negative impacts continue in Somalia. While early May brought wetter conditions, below-average vegetation and moisture conditions persisted across Somalia and parts of eastern and southeastern Ethiopia, and seasonal rainfall deficits remained significant as the typical end of the season nears. There are concerns about likely below-normal June–September 2026 rainfall over parts of Sudan, South Sud...

Original source: Relief Web