Trump's geopolitical brinkmanship has hit a wall with Iran
During his first year back in office, United States President Donald Trump’s blustery negotiating style won him concessions from countries on issues ranging from tariffs to armed conflict. But with Iran, that same brand of coercive diplomacy, marked by public threats, insults and ultimatums, seems to have hit a wall and may be undermining his own efforts to end a war that has shaken the global economy. With the two sides deadlocked, Trump has signalled growing frustration over the 11-week-old crisis but has shown little inclination to soften his harsh diplomatic approach toward Iran’s leaders. That does not bode well for a quick negotiated settlement, fueling fears that the current standoff — and its unprecedented shock to world energy supplies — could drag on indefinitely with periodic bouts of brinkmanship. Among the main obstacles, analysts say, is the Iranian rulers’ mindset, including their need to save face with their own domestic audience, despite US-Israeli strikes having killed many top leaders . Though Iran has essentially maintained a chokehold on the vital Strait of Hormuz , giving it considerable leverage, Trump has persisted with a diplomatic playbook characterised by maximalist demands, unpredictability, mixed signals and scathing language. Even more significant, analysts say, is Trump’s insistence on emerging from the conflict framing it as an absolute victory for the US — even if this doesn’t match the reality on the ground — while the Iranians must accept total defeat, which they are not likely to do. “That inevitably gets in the way of reaching a reasonable deal because no government, not just Iran’s, can afford to be viewed as having capitulated,” said Rob Malley, a former Iran negotiator in the Obama and Biden administrations. The continuing impasse with Iran comes as Trump faces domestic pressure over high US gasoline prices and his own low approval ratings after he embarked on an unpo...
Original source: Dawn Pakistan