Somalia Food Security Outlook Update April - September 2026: Bay Bakool agropastoral areas face risk of Famine if gu rains underperform

Country: Somalia Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages FEWS NET assesses a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral Livelihood Zones starting in the June to September period. Following the failed 2025 deyr season and poor start to the gu rains, acute malnutrition has sharply risen while food assistance levels are at historic lows. In Burhakaba district of Bay, malnutrition has surpassed the 30 percent WHZ threshold associated with Famine (IPC Phase 5), while many other areas recorded a MUAC that exceeded the 15 percent Famine threshold. The most likely scenario assumes gu rainfall continues through the normal end of the season, enabling households to access up to two months of cereal harvests, driving modest food security improvements. However, if the gu rains end early, or should prolonged dry spells emerge during critical stages of crop development in May and June, a second consecutive season of crop failure would drive rapidly increasing levels of hunger, acute malnutrition, and hunger-related mortality, resulting in Famine (IPC Phase 5). Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected through September, with a small proportion of the population in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) until green harvesting begins. FEWS NET assesses that a greater proportion of households will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse due to sharper increases in food and fuel costs and poorer gu performance than previously anticipated . In pastoral areas, below-average livestock productivity, high food prices, and insecurity will constrain food access, especially in areas facing multiple poor seasons.In agropastoral are...

Original source: Relief Web