Somalia Food Security Alert: Agropastoral areas in and around Bay face a risk of Famine from June onward (May 14, 2026)

Country: Somalia Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. FEWS NET assesses a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in crop-dependent agropastoral areas of Bay, Bakool, and Gedo between June and September. If the below-average April-June gu rains end early or dry spells occur during critical crop development stages in May and June, there is high concern that all three technical thresholds for Famine (IPC Phase 5) may be crossed in two to three months. In these areas, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are already ongoing , and some households are likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).The failed October to December 2025 deyr season and subsequently harsh jilaal dryseason impeded households’ ongoing recovery from the historic 2020-2023 drought . Multiple seasons of crop, livestock, and labor income losses; record-high food, fuel, and water prices; and escalating conflict have severely eroded livelihoods and coping capacity. Acute malnutrition has risen sharply (Figure 1) amid high morbidity, reduced access to health and nutrition services, and historically low and declining levels of humanitarian food assistance. The most likely scenario assumes the gu rains continue as forecasted through the end of the season in June, supporting partial crop recovery and up to two months of cereal stocks. The gu rains have been markedly poor to date, delaying critical improvements in cropping and livestock conditions. Land preparation, wet planting, and seed germination were notably delayed in Bay Region. Although rainfall has somewhat improved over the past two weeks, deep deficits persist . However, short-cycle sorghum crops, which are more resilient to dry conditions than maize, are likely to rebound if rainfall accum...

Original source: Relief Web