How the Talarico-Paxton race could play out

With Ken Paxton's GOP primary win this week, Democrats now have the Republican Senate candidate, tactically speaking, they were hoping for. Now the question is whether their nominee, James Talarico , a young state lawmaker from Austin, can deliver them out of the wilderness. Why it matters: A Talarico win would give the Democrats an unexpected seat in their quest to retake the Senate — and potentially move Texas into the battleground column for 2028, a seismic reordering of the national electoral landscape. The latest: Talarico ratcheted up the pressure on Paxton Thursday, announcing his campaign had raised more than $3 million in the 24 hours after Paxton defeated longtime U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the Tuesday runoff — calling it the biggest single-day haul of the campaign. State of play: The nonpartisan elections forecaster Cook Political Report shifted the race one notch to the left, from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" after Paxton's victory. Paxton, the state attorney general, has dodged an impeachment conviction and an FBI investigation over corruption allegations from his own senior staffers. He also avoided a trial on felony security charges. Now his wife, Republican state Sen. Angela Paxton, is seeking a divorce on " biblical grounds ." Meanwhile, Democrats are invigorated by special election results across the country, including in Texas , and see hope in President Trump's low approval ratings . Yes, but: The U.S. Senate race will not be some small special election — and Paxton has won statewide elections three times before. Republicans also have a historical advantage in Texas, where they have swept every statewide election since 1996. Follow the money: Talarico has proven a formidable fundraiser ; Paxton has not. With more money in the bank, Talarico can shape the general election campaign narrative out of the gate. The Senate Republican campaign arm spent lavishly for the Cornyn campaign and now must r...

Original source: Axios