The new oil order that could emerge from an Iran deal

With a U.S.-Iran deal (maybe?) taking shape in coming days, the oil market that follows will look different than what preceded the war. Why it matters: The emerging deal — which would re-open the Strait of Hormuz while nuclear talks proceed — could return large amounts of barrels to the market. It's not a moment too soon as global oil stockpiles, which have somewhat tempered the crisis, are drawn down at record pace. Reality check: Things won't be normal for a long time, and the postwar definition of normal is fluid, too. A few near-term and long-term things to watch... 😨 Confidence: In the near term, " It's all about whether vessel owners and crews feel safe transiting the Strait of Hormuz," said oil analyst Ben Cahill of UT-Austin. He notes confusion about whether Iran will imposes some kind of fees, safety, insurance rates and more. "It could be a stop-and-start process as risk-averse shippers work through these uncertainties," he tells me via email. 🕰️ Timelines: "Following the clearance of any mines, a minimum of two to three months will likely be required to re‑establish steady export operations," the International Energy Agency said in its mid-May oil market report. And Persian Gulf countries need time to resume production that declined after the main export route was cut off. 📜 Definitions: What "open" means for the world's most important energy shipping lane is unsettled. Iran may not call it a toll, but Iranian officials are floating new fees on tankers. This could be a boon to Iran even if the fee is relatively small, said Edward Fishman, a former State Department aide now with the Council on Foreign Relations. Fishman — speaking on oil analyst Rory Johnston's essential Oil Ground Up podcast — sees vessels paying tens of billions of dollars per year, even $100 billion. "If you look at it from the perspective of market participants, whether it's oil traders or shippers, even if you're paying $2 million a p...

Original source: Axios