Yemen: Agrometeorological Early Warning Bulletin (20 - 31 May 2026) [EN/AR]

Country: Yemen Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Please refer to the attached files. Overview: May 2026 is expected to conclude with steadily declining rainfall and elevated temperatures, particularly across desert and coastal areas. Key Concerns: Decreasing rainfall and flood recession: During the last dekad of May 2026, rainfall is expected to decline gradually to very low levels, with only occasional residual showers over the central highlands, particularly in Dhamar and Ibb governorates. Bi-weekly forecasts from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) indicate a moderate (40%) probability of below-average rainfall along the western slopes of the highlands. Soaring temperatures: Above-average temperatures are forecast across most governorates during the third dekad of May 2026, with the strongest anomalies over the coastal plains—including Tihama, Aden, and the Hadhramaut coast—and inland desert areas such as Al Jawf, Marib, and the Hadhramaut interior, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves (Fig. 1). Maximum temperatures are expected to reach 35–42°C in coastal and desert areas, while the central highlands—including Sana’a, Dhamar, Ibb, and Taizz governorates —are likely to see temperatures of 25–31°C. Implications on Agricultural Livelihoods Rainfed agriculture: Conditions are likely to remain generally favorable for early-stage sorghum and millet, though localized rainfall variability may delay planting and other field activities in some areas. Irrigated agriculture: Higher temperatures and increased evapotranspiration are expected to raise irrigation demand, with heightened water-stress risks in already water-scarce basins. Livestock and pastoral systems: Heat-stress risk is expected to increase in desert rangelands, coastal a...

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